ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- Gas
prices have rocketed in the United States, particularly in California,
and as tempers flare politicians look for ways to ease Americans' pain.
The search for a major alternative source of oil is an obvious option and
a primary reason Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will spend a week
in the oil-rich Caspian Sea region beginning April 14. She will visit Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
In 1998 the State Department estimated the Caspian region
has reserves of oil and gas at 178 billion barrels or more, making it the
largest untapped source of these fuels in the world.
A major portion of this wealth is in western Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstani
President Nursultan Nazarbayev says his country will become one of the
world's top five oil producers of the future. But as he told the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe in February, the energy potential
of the region can only be realized if problems among regional states are
resolved, ideally with help from the international community.
Anchor for stability
The Clinton administration sees Kazakhstan as a key to
the future of this region. Albright plans to discuss combating regional
terrorism. She will also discuss how the United States can support already
well-advanced market but as yet incomplete democratic reforms that the
United States hopes will make this the region's most independent country
-- and an anchor for stability.
Landlocked Kazakhstan is by far the most important country strategically
in Central Asia. Four times the size of Texas but much more sparsely populated,
it is breaking free from a grim Soviet past. During a half-century, Soviet
leaders settled millions of Russians there to develop agriculture, heavy
industry and what, on independence in 1991, was the fourth-largest nuclear
arsenal in the world.
After independence, Kazakhstan launched a major reform program and became
the first country to unilaterally eliminate nuclear weapons in exchange
for security ``assurances'' from the United States and others.
Still, many fear Kazakhstan may be particularly vulnerable to
the increasingly assertive Russian nationalism evident in the war in Chechnya
and the election of Vladimir Putin as Russian president.
Of all the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, Kazakhstan
remains the most closely tied to Russia. The two countries have deep historic
links and share a 4,250-mile border. Though about 2.5 million Russians
have returned ``home'' during the past decade, a third of Kazakhstan's
ethnically diverse population, according to government figures, is still
Russian by ancestry. And for practical reasons Russian remains the main
language of government.
Kazakhstanis are quietly looking for hedges against a resurgence
of Russian influence. One demonstration of independence has been the construction
of a rather bleak but efficient new capital in Astana, a northern city
not far from the Russian border.
Strategic geography
Kazakhstan's strategic importance also comes from an
almost 1,000-mile frontier with China on the east and the presence, on
and near its southern flank, of often unstable Islamic states, some of
which already hinder energy contacts with the West.
In a recent interview in Astana, Nazarbayev said that in Afghanistan
and Tajikistan religious extremists ``cover their deeds with religious
slogans.'' One of the main reasons for religion-tainted conflicts from
Chechnya to Tajikistan, he continued, ``is to place obstacles in the way
of oil transportation.''
Such concerns have even made their way into popular culture. In
the latest James Bond film, the fictional British spy protects Central
Asian oil pipelines from terrorists. In real life, his less flamboyant
counterparts are trying to do the same. CIA Director George Tenet came
here at the end of March and FBI Director Louis Freeh will be here early
this month to discuss international terrorism and regional security.
But terrorism is not the central concern of those developing the
region's huge oil and gas reserves. One major foreign oil industry source
said that terrorism ``doesn't come up'' as an investment factor any more
here than elsewhere in the world.
The key question here is not finding oil but getting it delivered
to world markets. In Kazakhstan almost all the oil is located in huge deposits,
such as the Tengiz oil field, which lie in and near the Caspian Sea. Mobil,
Chevron, Shell and Texaco are among the American companies already working
here. Foreign experts have estimated that getting this oil into the market
could cost up to $160 billion.
When Kazakhstan was a Soviet republic, all oil went through Russia,
and most still does today. But the Kazakhstan government and its foreign
partners, encouraged by the United States, are looking for alternate routes
that would not be subject to potential Russian closure. Nazarbayev emphasizes
that Kazakhstan's ``strategy of petroleum exportation is based upon the
necessity of diversifying transport routes.''
Some potential projects, such as lines that would pass through
Chechnya, Afghanistan and Pakistan, are not feasible because of security
reasons. But in mid-2001 the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is set to open
a pipeline carrying oil from the rich Tengiz fields near the Caspian to
the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Because the consortium
is multinational, Doulat Kuanyshev, chairman of Kazakhstan's Agency on
Investment, calls this pipeline his country's ``first ever access to the
world market.''
Break with Russia
Real diversification, however, and thus greatly increased
independence from Russia, will only come from projects in which Moscow
has little or no role. In a study published last year at Princeton, Jofi
Joseph said the United States has even sent ``blunt, if veiled, messages
to Russia and Iran to keep their distance'' from the Central Asian oil
bonanza. In short, for Americans the best pipelines run east and west.
The most important pipeline under consideration today would be
from the Caspian port of Baku through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey's
Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Contrary to some commentary abroad, Nazarbayev
insists that Kazakhstan is ``ready to take part in it as one of the basic
suppliers of crude oil'' if this can be done securely and profitably. He
laments, however, that this project has been ``excessively politicized.''
This route is a centerpiece in U.S.-Caspian policy because it includes
NATO ally Turkey and excludes Iran.
In American thinking, this route is usually juxtaposed to a pipeline
that might go largely south through Iran, a country that is subject to
wide-ranging U.S. sanctions, including a ban on investments in oil. Like
others, Nazarbayev recognizes that this route would probably be the most
economical but for now lacks the ``political prerequisites.''
Domestically, the development of the oil industry is essential for the
success of the reforms intended to make life better for the people and
thus keep Kazakhstan a stable force in the region.
Most Kazakhstanis seem to support current reforms, but with an economy
that is sluggish because of historical problems and recent financial crises
abroad, some Kazakhstanis are nostalgic for the old society that was more
equal if not more prosperous than the present one. As presidential press
secretary Asylbek Bisenbayev said in an interview, it takes time to change
popular psychology. Should the domestic reforms fail, the probable instability
could invite foreign -- most likely Russian -- intervention.
When Albright visits Kazakhstan, she will find strong interest
in closer relations with the U.S. government and American businesses. But
she will also find deep concern about one recent U.S. policy in particular.
Many of Kazakhstan's leaders worry that when NATO jettisoned its defensive
posture last year and bombed sovereign Yugoslavia it set a dangerous precedent,
one that Russia might cite later in dealing with its former Central Asian
republics, including Kazakhstan.