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Decline in global oil production and rising energy demand calls for international energy policy
by Ron Swenson
Oil Crisis News from Around the World

Copenhagen, Denmark •• May 28, 2004 •• SolarQuest® iNet News Service •• A decline in global oil production within 10 to 20 years implies serious economic consequences for a technologically unprepared world. Parliaments, governments and international political institutions must therefore consider the opportunities for balancing demand and production in the next decades.

The Danish Board of Technology and The Society of Danish Engineers has jointly commissioned the review "Oil-based Technology and Economy - Prospects for the Future" and organised an international conference "Oil Demand, Production and Cost - Prospects for the Future", held in Copenhagen on December 10th 2003.

The review "Oil-based Technology and Economy - Prospects for the Future" has now been published

The aim of the review is to outline the characteristics of the cheap-oil economy and provide an overview of different scenarios for the future development in demand and supply presented by various experienced researchers and institutions that base their analyses on different methodologies.

The review has been prepared by Klaus Illum in collaboration with a workgroup set up to organise the conference and to form a forum for the critical discussion and revision of the review.

The review "Oil-based Technology and Economy - Prospects for the Future" can be downloaded from and (4,8 MB). A preliminary edition of the review was presented at the international conference "Oil-Based Technology and Economy - Prospects for the Future", held in Copenhagen on December 10th 2003.

In the present edition, the Summary has been extended and additions have been made to some other sections. Some additions refer to the presentations at the conference, others to articles published shortly before or after the conference.

A draft of the review, approved by the workgroup, was critically reviewed by:

Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, Senior Expert in Corporate Planning, Directorate of the Iranian National Oil Company (NIOC), Iran
Dr. Colin J. Campbell, Petroleum Consultant, Ireland. Founder and chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
Dr. Donald L. Gautier, Petroleum Geologist, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park California, USA
Mr. Francis Harper, Exploration Consultant. Former Manager, Reserves and Resources at BP, UK
Mr. Jean H. Laherrére, France. Former President of the Exploration Commission of the Comité des Techniciens of the Union Française de l'Industrie Pétrolière

The Copenhagen Conference has been an opportunity to address questions of great importance. We hope that the conference and the review will spur further debate on this serious subject and of action to be taken.

The conference presentations can be viewed on

Torben Klein, President of the Danish Board of Technology
Lars Bytoft Olsen, President of the Society of Danish Engineers

Further information can be obtained by application to project manager Gy Larsen at the Danish Board of Technology, gl at or 33 45 53 76.

The Danish Board of Technology
Antonigade 4
DK-1106 Copenhagen K.
Phone +45 3332 0503

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