To: Ron Swenson
From: John Busby
26 November 2005
The energy input comes from the WISE calculator.
This calculator covers only gives the "front end" of the nuclear fuel cycle, part of which, the mining and milling to "yellow cake" (U3O8) happens in Australia.
First set the parameters
Enter 1 tonne uranium in the yellow part below "Uranium Mill" to the right of U3O8
Then in the blue part, enter 0.11% ore grade.
Then go to the red part, enter 928 MJ per t ore, 37 kWhe/t ore, 3470 MJ per t ore and 963 kWhe/t ore.
The latter figures come from SLS, see http://www.stormsmith.nl, Chapter 2, Energy costs of mining and milling.
If you then press calculate you then get for mining and milling 0.254 + 0.949 GWhth and 0.364 + 0.950 GWhe electricity, totalling 2.188 GWh, say 2 GWh, which at 37% utilisation/generation efficiency works out at 5.4 GWh.
Converting to imported crude oil 5400 MWh/12 = 450 tonnes of oil, so 9000 x 450 x 7.33 = 30 million barrels x $67/barrel = $2 billion.
Since the piece was published the oil price has gone down a little, whereas the U price is now $89/kg. So 9,000 tonnes U is now worth $801 million, which if oil was still $20/barrel would make more sense. Also the previous mines had a higher ore grade, the average being pulled down by Olympic Dam.
With the next mine to be opened in South Oz the grade is 0.04% which approaches the SLS "crossover" of 0.02% at which the emissions exceed the gas-fired equivalent and the energy gain goes negative.
BHP Billiton has stated that they would not go ahead with the Olympic Dam uranium deep mine conversion to open cast with a hole 3km x 3km x 1km deep were it not for the co-products of copper and gold. Even so they are asking the South Australian government to build a 100 km rail connection and provide 150 million litres a day of de-salinated water. They are undertaking a feasibility study, so I might send them my calculations for inspiration.
I hope I got the figures right although so far no one in OZ has challenged them! I must admit they came out bigger than I thought they might.
They only way these might be checked is from the mining companies' own statistics, which might show fuel costs in the profit and loss accounts.